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Posted on 10 Nov 2008 at 15:35

A computer model that can predict human behaviour and learning has been created.

The system is able to forecast how people will complete a controlled task and how the knowledge needed to complete that task develops over time. It was produced by a group of researchers from Penn State's College of Information Sciences and Technology (IST) in the US.

The team studied 10 students from the University of Nottingham in the UK, who carried out a test, 20 times.

Each participant had to identify faults in a circuit system after memorising the organisation of its components and switches. The series of tests was chosen randomly each time.

Their choices and reaction times were recorded and compared with the computer model's results.

A computer model - called Diag - took in information about the students' responses as it went through each test, and developed the knowledge for completing the task quickly and efficiently.

"The model does not merely accurately predict problem-solving time for the human participants; it also replicates the strategy that human participants use, and it learns at the same rate at which the participants learn," said Frank Ritter, associate professor of IST and psychology.

In most cases, the model came within two to four seconds of predicting how long it would take each participant to solve the problem and it fit eight out of the 10 participants' problem-solving times very well. Ritter said the results outlined in the paper were consistent with previous trials, showing the development of regularity in the model.

"The project shows we can predict human learning on a fine-grained level," Ritter explained. "Everyone thinks that's possible, but here's an actual model doing it. The model provides a detailed representation of how a transfer works, and that transfer process is really what education is about."

Author: Robert Jaques